Pound resilient in spite of election speculation

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    Over the past month GBP movement has been dominated by politics as market brace for the upcoming UK general election, which will shape what happens with Brexit in 2020.

    This saw GBP/EUR climb from 1.15 to a six-month high of 1.17, with EUR/GBP retreating to 0.85.

    Meanwhile, GBP/USD traded between 1.27 and 1.29, whilst EUR/USD edged from 1.11 to 1.10.

     

    What’s been happening? 

    In spite of a looming general election, the pound has remained remarkably resilient over the past month.

    This is mostly down to the Conservatives consistently topping the polls, stoking hopes that a Tory majority government will be able to push through Boris Johnson’s EU Withdrawal deal and provide some more clarity on Brexit.

    The euro faced a persistent selling bias through November, with an increasingly fragile outlook for the Eurozone weighing down the single currency. 

    Finally, the US dollar has traded in a wide range in recent weeks, with a slew of US-China trade headlines keeping USD investors on their toes.

     

    What do you need to look out for? 

    The UK general election on 12th December will undoubtedly be the key catalyst of movement in the Pound this month. A hung parliament would erode some of the pound’s recent gains, while a Labour-led Government could spark some significant shifts. A Conservative victory would be GBP-supportive. 

    Meanwhile, the euro may remain in the doldrums through to the end of 2019, especially if Eurozone economic data remains gloomy.

    For USD investors the focus will be on the Federal Reserve, with the US dollar potentially facing some headwinds if the bank’s forward guidance hints at more monetary easing in 2020.

     

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