Surging US Treasury yields propel US dollar to four-month high

  • Surging US Treasury yields propel US dollar to four-month high

     

    The US dollar has made steady gains over the past couple of weeks as the currency rose in step with a strong pick up in US Treasury yields.

    During this period, we’ve seen GBP/EUR climb from €1.15 to €1.16, whilst EUR/GBP has retreated to £0.85.

    Meanwhile, after topping $1.42, GBP/USD has stumbled back to $1.38, while EUR/USD slumped from $1.21 to $1.19.

     

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    What’s been happening?

    The US dollar has outperformed the majority of its peers during the past couple of weeks, as the appeal of the ‘Greenback’ has been turbocharged by surging US Treasury yields, as well as President Biden’s stimulus package passing and some upbeat economic data.

    The pound, meanwhile, briefly struck a multi-year high in late February, courtesy of rising UK economic optimism as the government outlined its reopening plans.

    After falling victim to some profit taking in end-of-month trade, Sterling has mounted a modest recovery amidst a positive reaction to Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s 2021 Budget.

    At the same time, the euro has spent most of the past few weeks on the defensive, being undermined by broad USD strength, as well as some lacklustre data releases, and EU vaccine concerns.

     

    What do you need to look out for? 

    Looking ahead, the pound looks likely to attempt another rally in March, assuming the initial steps of the UK government’s reopening plans proceed smoothly, and domestic coronavirus cases continue to fall.

    The euro is likely to face a more difficult time, with the EU continuing to lag behind in its vaccination rollout and uncertainty over how long countries in the Eurozone will need to maintain restrictions. 

    Meanwhile, the US dollar is likely to maintain its upward trajectory so long as US yields continue to surge.

     

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