Pound reopening optimism offset by surging cases

  • Pound reopening optimism offset by surging cases


    GBP exchange rates have wavered again at the beginning of this month, with the UK’s reopening optimism offset by concerns over the surge in coronavirus cases.

    GBP/EUR has fluctuated between €1.16 and €1.17, trending marginally higher overall, and EUR/GBP has ranged from £0.85 to £0.86.

    GBP/USD has moved between $1.39 and $1.37, currently trading at around $1.38, while EUR/USD has dropped from $1.19 to $1.18.



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    What’s been happening?

    The pound has been volatile over the past couple of weeks, with mixed views on the UK’s reopening plans. A mostly optimistic tone has been offset by warnings that reopening too soon could dent the UK’s progress.

    The euro has also fluctuated, with a strong Eurozone economic recovery often dented by disappointing German data.

    Meanwhile, the US dollar is still strengthened by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last month, despite recent data suggesting a slowdown in US economic growth.


    What do you need to look out for? 

    The upcoming lifting of nearly all remaining coronavirus restrictions in England, paired with an expected rise in domestic inflation, could help to propel the pound higher through the second half of July.

    The Eurozone is in a potentially precarious situation with the spread of the Delta variant of the virus, but the bloc’s vaccination programme is making progress. The next few weeks could be key in seeing whether the Euro area can fully reopen for the summer tourism season.

    USD investors will be focused in on the impending US CPI release, will a modest slowing of inflation dampen USD demand?


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