The past couple of weeks have been characterised by a downbeat market mood, which has been particularly painful for the pound.
During this time, we’ve seen GBP/EUR trade between €1.17 and €1.15, while EUR/GBP has climbed to £0.86.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD slumped from $1.25 to a three-month low of $1.23, while EUR/USD retreated from $1.07 to $1.06.
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What’s been happening?
The pound drifted lower through the first half of September as it was undermined by lacklustre data and an increasingly pessimistic outlook for the UK economy.
The euro also faced resistance over the past couple of weeks, with the single currency seeing particular volatility after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates but also signalled they have likely peaked.
In contrast, the US dollar has enjoyed a strong start to September as the safe-haven currency has benefitted from the dour market mood.
What do you need to look out for?
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision will act as a key catalyst of movement in the US dollar over the next couple of weeks. No policy changes are expected this month, but USD exchange rates may surge if the Fed leaves the door open to future hikes.
Likewise, the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate decision could spark volatility in GBP exchange rates. A 25bps hike is expected, but the pound could plunge if the BoE indicates this is the end of its tightening cycle.
Meanwhile, the euro may remain on the defensive if upcoming Eurozone data releases continue to disappoint.
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